Local Journalism Initiative

By Dian Cohen

Local Journalism Initiative

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed us. While the short-term effects have been felt and recognized by many, the long-term effects are still unknown in scope and impact. Many of us are adjusting to different ways of working, learning and socializing while hoping for a “return to normal.” In time, something will become a “new normal.”

The impact of the pandemic on work can’t be overstated. Canada experienced the largest and quickest transition to remote work ever. COVID became an “ah-ha” moment for many: do I really want to do this job? Do I really want to spend so much time traveling to work? It became the impetus for a rethink of what personal autonomy and freedom might look like. For many, it meant working from home, at least some of the time. For others, the online world of work became as much a reality as buying goods online, with independent ‘gigs’ taking the place of 9 to 5 jobs.

Before COVID, improving work-life balance was an aspirational topic for many. Scheduling conflicts, feeling stressed by the pressures of multiple roles were things many Canadians hoped to change. Almost overnight, many did. Today, more than 20 per cent of us work from home full time, down from the number that worked remotely at the beginning of the pandemic, but significantly more than the 7 per cent pre-pandemic. Those with hybrid arrangements – some office time, some home time — has more than tripled, bringing the total to one in three of us working at least some of the time at home. An overwhelming number report feeling more satisfied with their work-life arrangements. Among employees with office jobs, a staggeringly high per cent still say they would change their employment if it meant more flexibility of location and time spent at work. About 40 per cent say they’d take a pay cut if they could work fewer hours. Not all employers are convinced. A new tug-of-war between employers and employees has been created that is not yet resolved.

Data doesn’t show a meaningful reduction in pollution except during the total lockdown in early 2020. Indeed, for several months, COVID-19 brought a new source of plastic pollution in the form of single-use personal protective equipment (PPE), such as masks and gloves.

With no comprehensive emergency plan in place, public officials scrambled to protect the population. The outbreak was a medical, economic and social crisis, but Canada, like many other countries, turned to the medical community to define it. Its preferred strategy was to limit human interaction. The lockdowns invaded our personal spaces, complete with prohibitions of gatherings, masking, curfews, and fines for non-compliance. These restrictions were not normal — interaction with others is a necessity for human beings. Within weeks, groups across the country began protesting the medical solution. A key theme of the protests was anger directed toward governments and scientists. From Vancouver to Charlottetown, anti-mask, anti-lockdown and anti-public health protests formed. “Fake news” and “propaganda” became adjectives to describe public health directives. Even now, more than a year after all restrictions have been lifted, the blame game continues to divide those of us who supported the public health restrictions and those of us who challenged them. It is unclear whether the anti-vaccination movement, which now includes vaccines against many childhood killer diseases, will grow.

How we educate our kids was one of the early losers. Despite early data that suggested that not only was the virus not a serious threat to children but also that the isolation being home 24/7 was likely to harm them psychologically, school closures continued into 2022. Students received vastly different forms of schooling — some attended classes virtually, some in learning groups, some were home schooled and some got no formal learning at all. Studies conducted recently suggest that it is a matter of time before students will catch up with the reading, writing and math they lost. But evidence of psychological damage and socialization deficits is still having detrimental effects on many youngsters. These mental health issues cannot be laid squarely at the feet of COVID; we can say only that its presence made pre-COVID emerging issues worse.

At the other end of the age spectrum, the health, well‐being and quality of life of older adults has been severely affected by the pandemic. Isolation and loneliness had long been recognized as issues among people living alone or in long-term care facilities — they were amplified by newly revealed systemic healthcare gaps. Today, more community groups are involved in providing connections for older adults – helping them learn how to get online, facilitating in-person social events and so on. But many more older adults spend more time at home and less time socializing in public spaces than they did pre-pandemic. According to one study, many older folks worry about getting infected and cite more uncomfortable and hostile social dynamics as reasons to stay at home. This is not an unrealistic view of the world: this is the first time an infectious disease has pushed its way into the top five causes of death during the last 80 years or so of the antibiotic era. Older adults account for most of those deaths.

As for the in-between group, a number of studies indicate that many of us have not yet fully processed the trauma of a virus that brought the world to its knees. According to clinical psychiatrists, not acknowledging the state of high anxiety, fear and grief into which we were thrown has clear drawbacks. While not suggesting that the whole country has post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) they are suggesting that the strained relationships, free-floating sadness and anger so many Canadians exhibit have less to do with day-to-day frustrations and more to do with our left-over and unresolved feelings of being unable to control our lives or even protect ourselves for four long years.

Tomorrow,  scientific and medical advances.

Dian Cohen

Local Journalism Initiative

We’re still not sure what’s permanent or whether it’s ultimately going to be a win or a loss. That’s true for all institutional change, no less so because it’s been associated with a pandemic. Indeed, many economic changes have been coming for years as a result of new technologies, shifting preferences and better ways of doing things – the pandemic may just be the final push to something new and permanent. Time will tell.

What we do know is that small businesses – the backbone of the Canadian economy – were hardest hit. The number that closed up shop in 2020, especially in the arts, entertainment and recreation, was the highest in recent history. The federal government was quick to create programs such as the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) and Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) in an effort to support them and other parts of the economy. Perhaps that’s why business failures actually declined in 2021.

Government policies however both support and distort: business bankruptcies filed in 2023 were up 41 per cent from the year before, the sharpest increase in 36 years of records, according to the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy. The rate of filing has not abated in 2024 as more businesses decide to throw in the towel. Being unable to repay the government support loans may be a factor.

Before the pandemic, in 2019, well over a million small businesses employed 13 million of the 19 million people in the work force. Despite the upheaval and devastating personal tragedies, that’s still true today – one indication of Canadians’ resilience and optimism. Yet it’s not the same. Labor force participation rates – that is, the number of persons who are employed or looking for a job as a per cent of the total working-age population have not yet regained their 2019 levels. Part of this can be attributed to a re-evaluation of meaningful work, which we’ll talk more about in tomorrow’s segment on social and lifestyle changes.

We work and do business differently. Canadian consumers were moving online to purchase goods before the pandemic – for at least a decade, Internet consumer sales were rising at a faster rate than traditional retail sales. The pandemic added rocket fuel – almost all Canadians have access to the internet and we embraced electronic commerce amid the pandemic disruption in retail channels. Growth continues as more retailers invest in digital platforms to reach consumers. There’s still a long way to go — as a share of total retail, ecommerce accounts for just 13 per cent. Time will tell whether we’ll go back to physical shopping as we used to do it, or whether a new hybrid way of shopping – an outlet to see and touch the goods to be purchased online — will become the norm.

The composition of the workforce has changed, mostly because the worst hit sectors — travel, hospitality and entertainment – employed many more women in relatively lower-paying jobs. There’s no data yet to suggest that the gender pay gap has been worsened by the pandemic, but it can’t have helped. And there’s evidence that income inequality has been growing rapidly – during the first two years of the pandemic, income and wealth gaps were shrinking, as we all struggled to find our personal financial footing. Since then, the wealthiest Canadian households, with more savings to fall back on and greater ability to benefit from higher interest rates, have pulled ahead of the poorest both in terms of their share of the country’s total wealth and in terms of how much income they have left over to spend after essentials are paid for.

Not every business suffered during the pandemic. Essential retailers – grocers, pharmacists, discount stores – experienced unbelievably high sales volume as people stockpiled or simply bought more so that they could cook more at home. Advisors in financial institutions were busier than ever advising people on everything from mortgage deferrals to protecting their savings to reviewing their credit status.

Service businesses that asked their employees to work from home pressured telecommunications companies for more high-speed internet; people who were social distancing demanded more bandwidth for watching videos, playing games and keeping in touch with friends and family. It goes without saying that healthcare workers were in great demand. So were manufacturers of everything from toilet paper to personal protective equipment.

By far the biggest surge in employment was in the public sector, undoubtedly to administer — everything. There is no data yet that this trend is being reversed now that the emergency has passed – indeed public sector employment is the biggest part of the most recent statistics on job growth.  Government spending increased by 20 per cent, almost double the advanced economy average of 11 per cent. Canada’s federal COVID spending totaled $359.7 billion, almost all of which was borrowed. It has added $8 billion to interest costs. Much of this may have been appropriate – data is just now being compiled on how much of the support may have been wasted. Regardless, the burden of repaying the debt will weigh on Canadians for years to come. It will hinder development of new social programs, make it more difficult to control inflation or enhance our standards of living. Higher taxes are likely to be in our future.

Not everything that has or is changing has been caused by the pandemic but several things have been aggravated by it. GDP growth is weak but has overcome the pandemic lows. We have avoided a recession. Inflation has fallen, but not enough to force lower interest rates. High levels of immigration and large increases in non-permanent residents have positive and negative effects: many jobs have been filled although both job vacancies and unemployment remain high. The influx of more than a million people has contributed to the housing crisis. We are not competing well globally.

These issues, as well as financial anxiety and pandemic-related stress are making Canadians feel angrier in general. In particular, younger Canadians are more anxious about their future, concerned about their mental health and more disillusioned by politicians than previous generations. While 4 in 10 of us hope for positive outcomes in 2024, there is much dissatisfaction in large swathes of the population. This will affect not just their outlook on their personal lives but the economy as well.

Tomorrow, how our social lives have changed.

Dian Cohen

Local Journalism Initiative

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 virus a global pandemic on Jan. 30, 2020 and declared it no longer a public health emergency on May 5, 2023. Between the onset and now, more than 700 million people contracted the disease and 7 million people worldwide died. Canada’s experience was little different: almost 5 million contracted COVID-19 here and more than 50,000 died.

Canada, along with the other 193 member countries of the WHO have been meeting regularly to negotiate an international agreement to support pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response globally. The deadline for these negotiations is approaching – the “pandemic accord” is supposed to be delivered at the 77th World Health Assembly that begins today in Geneva and is in session for the entire week. It’s worth a look back to consider how we in Canada managed the worst pandemic in a century, how our economy and our daily lives have been impacted, what we’ve learned that will alleviate the damage of ‘the next time’.  

Today, a quick overview since early 2020. Tomorrow, a look at what the pandemic has done to and for the economy; Wednesday, how our lifestyles and the way we socialize have been impacted; Thursday, wins and losses in the medical and scientific fields. Friday we’ll try to sum up lessons learned, where we are today, how we’re preparing for the next time and the longer-term implications of our actions.

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When the “coronavirus” was declared a global pandemic at the end of January, 2020, Canada had already confirmed its first case. Discussions were both public and private – the government’s message was that the risk to Canadians was low, quarantining was not deemed necessary, it would be discriminatory to exclude travellers from China. By February, contradictory advice began to emerge: the Minister of Health Patty Hajdu recommended that citizens stockpile food and medication while the Health Canada website recommended against such bulk purchases. Theresa Tam, Chief Public Health Officer of Canada thought there was no need to wear a mask.

On March 9, 2020, two months after the declaration of a global pandemic, British Columbia’s provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry announced that a man living in the Lynn Valley Care Centre in North Vancouver had become Canada’s first death. The elderly man had health problems prior to contracting COVID. The feds began to bulk up their bank accounts to deal with the outbreak – the precursor of Bill C-13, the COVID-19 Emergency Response Act – multi-billions of emergency spending legislation for research to manage solutions, for the provinces and territories, and ultimately stimulus packages for everyone affected.

Two weeks after that, on March 20, the Canadian government closed the borders for all travelers except Canadian and American citizens and ordered Canadians to restrict their movements. Lockdowns became the order of the day. The border closure led to a million Canadians returning to Canada – masking was minimal and not officially recommended. There were no temperature checks at airports. Hand sanitizer dispensers had not been installed. There was no system in place to monitor 14-day self-isolation and not everyone knew they were supposed to do it.

Statistics Canada reported the country’s economy lost nearly two million jobs during the first full month of the lockdown, catapulting the unemployment rate to 13 per cent. The annual inflation rate turned negative as the economy came to a standstill. Stocks plummeted, yet Shopify became Canada’s most valuable company — its share price more than doubling as brick-and-mortar retailers were forced to close and consumers turned to online alternatives.

April was a cruel month for the feds to crack down on social distancing and quarantining. The RCMP had the power to enforce the Quarantine Act of 2005 (put in place after the SARs epidemic). Penalties for violations included fines of up to $750,000 and imprisonment for six months. By April it was also known that the vast majority of deaths in the country were connected with long-term care and seniors’ homes. By May, the death toll from COVID-19 passed 5,000 and the country’s overall caseload rose to 70,000. Flaws in the long-term care system were so egregious that more than 1,000 members of Canada’s military — including most of its medical personnel — were deployed to long-term care homes in Quebec and Ontario.

Although thousands of schools had been shut in February, by week 10, Quebec reopened elementary schools and daycares outside the Montreal area while Newfoundland and Labrador’s schools remained closed. Amid anti-lockdown protests, BC, Ontario and Saskatchewan took tentative steps to reopen their economies. By June, Ontario was back to emergency measures — bars and restaurants, except for takeout and delivery, would stay closed. Gatherings were limited to five people. New variants were emerging that rollercoaster-ed illness and deaths. Indeed, five distinct waves of between 100 and 200 days each were tracked from January 2020 to February 2022. The sixth wave, beginning March 2022 is ongoing – now more than 800 days, because reliable tracking on recoveries has stopped.

Canada’s response to the pandemic was less than stellar. The SARS outbreak in 2003 was the impetus for the creation in 2004 of the Public Health Agency of Canada and the appointment of a Chief Public Health Officer. That same year a Canadian Pandemic Influenza Preparedness guide was published, purporting to outline how federal, provincial, and territorial jurisdictions should work together to ensure a coordinated and consistent health-sector approach to pandemic emergencies. According to the government’s website, the plan was tested with the advent of the H1N1 pandemic of 2009. There is no official evaluation of whether the plan worked as expected. Several other guidelines were created between 2013 and 2018. We now know that these guidelines were never updated, coordinated with the provinces or tested. The Auditor General said in 2021 that they were neither used nor useful during the COVID pandemic.  

For the general public in 2020, it appeared that there was no plan in place. Aside from the financial support the government hastily legislated, public sentiment was that the people who were supposed to be in charge, weren’t. Past patience with public and private sector leaders who managed the country gave way to confusion and disillusionment as Canadians contemplated contradictory instructions, draconian lifestyle restrictions and the possibility of financial ruin.

The wait for clear direction and help or a cure seemed interminable. But the wait was less than a year and that was akin to a miracle. Thanks to an unprecedented level of global cooperation, on Dec. 9, 2020 Health Canada authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Canada started injecting COVID-19 vaccines on Dec. 14, 2020.

A surge of ills is being attributed to the pandemic. As social creatures, the pandemic’s disruption and isolation created problems from which we still have not recovered. Among the biggest costs has been learning loss. Students have begun to recover some of the pandemic losses from long school closures but have a long way to go. In addition to deaths from the virus, long COVID — which scientists still don’t understand — has afflicted many people.

On Oct. 1, 2022, the Government of Canada removed all COVID-19 border measures including proof of vaccination, testing, quarantine, isolation and use of the ArriveCAN app. By then, Canada’s federal COVID-19 spending totaled $359.7 billion, added $8.3 billion to present-day interest costs and is generally playing havoc with fiscal prudence. A global bond ratings agency has downgraded Canada’s credit rating from triple-A to double-A-plus.

On April 4, 2024, the government stopped reporting COVID-19 hospital use. Nationally, the number of people getting COVID-19 is decreasing and remains at low levels, although 31,000 tests were reported on that day.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at how the economy has been transformed.