Julie Vignola

Polls suggest another three-way race in Beauport-Limoilou

Peter Black, Local Journalism Initiative reporter

peterblack@qctonline.com

Of the seven ridings in the North Shore Quebec City area, surely the most unpredictable would be Beauport-Limoilou.

In the last three elections, the top three finishers were within about five points of each other in the popular vote, separated by a spread of about 3,000 votes.

It is not a bellwether riding, though; not since the 2008 election has it elected an MP on the government side – a Conservative – and you have to go back to the days of Pierre Trudeau for when the riding last went Liberal.

Again, this time around, polls are suggesting the riding will be a close three-way race, with the Bloc Québécois incumbent at risk of losing her seat. Projections from the Canada338 poll-tracking site describe the riding as “CPC leaning” with the Conservative Party ahead of the Liberals by six points, with a seven-point margin of error. The Bloc Québécois is a more distant third.

Such projections, however, are based on provincewide polling data and do not take into account the impact of the local candidates or local issues.

The riding, which spans the area between the Autoroute Laurentienne and the Montmorency River, has been reconfigured somewhat since the last election, which, according to one analysis, could favour the Conservatives.

The incumbent, Julie Vignola, a teacher who grew up in Fermont, first won the riding in the 2019 election, edging out Conservative incumbent Alupa Clarke by about 2,000 votes. In the 2021 election, she snuffed out Clarke’s comeback attempt by about 1,000 votes.

This time, she faces Hugo Langlois, a well-known television host and son of longtime

Beauport mayor and Quebec City councillor Jacques Langlois. The Liberal candidate is also high-profile – Steeve Lavoie, the former head of the Chambre de commerce et industrie de Québec.

The former NDP MP for the riding, Raymond Côté, is attempting to regain the seat he won in 2011. The current election marks Côté’s fifth campaign for Beauport-Limoilou.

Vignola said the current battle for Beauport-Limoilou is “une belle campagne,” compared to 2021 when the pandemic made it hard to meet people, and 2019 when the Bloc needed to reconnect with voters. She said in an interview with the QCT that people are concerned about the threat of the tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed, but they also want to know, “Who is [Liberal Leader] Mark Carney? Who exactly is [Conservative Leader] Pierre Poilievre?”

Vignola said the key local issues in the riding are air quality, affordable housing and homelessness. She sees her role as MP, even though the Bloc can never form a government, as fighting for local issues.

Conservative candidate Langlois, who learned his English through his girlfriend who attended St. Patrick’s High School and CEGEP Champlain-St. Lawrence, said he chose to run with the future of his teenage daughters in mind.

The longtime host of TVA morning show Salut Bonjour said that even though he had a very satisfying career, he felt “it’s my time.” Noting that he was raised “in a really active political family,” Langlois said, “I have everything to give for the citizens of Beauport-Limoilou. I have a good name, good reputation, I know how it works, so I think I’m offering my best.”

He said, “People are scared” and concerned about such is- sues as the cost of housing. He said he believed Canada has missed opportunities under the Liberals. “We’re a rich country,  we have a lot of natural resources, ambitious businessmen and businesswomen. We have a lot of things that other countries are looking for, but we didn’t do anything to make them work for us in the last 10 years.”

Liberal candidate Lavoie, a former bank executive who lives in Lévis, was not available to speak with the QCT. He recently told Le Soleil, “I spent my career in Quebec City, my children went to school in Quebec City and I’m very familiar with local issues through my former role at the Chamber of Commerce. I want to give the people of Beauport-Limoilou a direct voice in government.”

Lavoie said it was not the arrival on the scene of Carney that spurred him to run for office, “but it’s definitely a plus. He’s an incredible man with an incredible resumé. I had decided to go for it, but let’s just say it added value.”

The NDP’s Côté said he decided to run again because people urged him to get involved and lend his experience to the party’s campaign. He said the “obsession with the dangers of Donald Trump” means “we are forgetting the things that concern people on a daily basis.”

Other candidates registered in Beauport-Limoilou are Dalila Elhak for the Green Party, Andrée Massicotte for the People’s Party and Claude Moreau for the Marxist-Leninist Party.