The race is on to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM

The race is on to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM

Peter Black, Local Journalism Initiative reporter

peterblack@qctonline.com

Want to be prime minister, if only for possibly just two months?

The job is open and several candidates are already testing the waters and getting the lay of the land.

Last week, the Liberal Party of Canada released the rules for the contest to replace Justin Trudeau as party leader and prime minister. The basic requirements to get into the contest are a $350,000 deposit and the willingness to hustle membership votes for a race to be decided on March 9.

Interested contestants have until Jan. 23 to officially toss their name in the hat.

After a meeting on Jan. 9, the party executive decided to restrict the criteria for party membership to avoid the prospect of foreign interference. To be eligible to be a voting member, a person needs to be at least 14 years old, support the purposes of the party, be a Canadian citizen or permanent resident, not be a member of another federal party in Canada, and not have publicly declared the intention to run as a candidate for another federal party.

The deadline to register as a Liberal, through the party’s website, is Jan. 27. There is no fee to become a member.

Party president Sachit Mehra said in a release, “This is a time for Liberals across the country to exchange ideas and engage in thoughtful debate to shape the future of our party and our country – and I encourage all Liberals to get involved in this exciting moment for our party.”

Whoever wins the race faces the task of forming a cabinet, preparing a throne speech to outline new directions for the government, and then leading the party in the next election, which would come quickly. Op- position parties have declared they will defeat the Liberal minority government at the earliest opportunity once Parliament returns from prorogation on March 24.

As of this writing, only two fringe candidates have official- ly said they want to run: former Montreal-area MP Frank Baylis and Ottawa-area MP Chandra Arya. Some potential heavy- weights have ruled themselves out, including Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly and Transport Minister Anita Anand.

Those seriously considering a bid are former Bank of Canada head Mark Carney, former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, former British Columbia premier Christy Clark, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, Employment Minister Steven MacKinnon and Innovation Minister François- Philippe Champagne.

This scenario matches the one predicted by veteran local Liberal and former MP and senator Dennis Dawson. “We will start with six or seven candidates and will have bor- ing debates where everyone gets two or three minutes to convince Liberal supporters he or she is the best to challenge both [incoming U.S. president Donald] Trump as well as [Conservative Leader Pierre] Poilievre.”

Dawson said Quebec ministers interested in running will argue the Liberal Party’s traditional “alternance” between leaders from Quebec and the rest of Canada “is a myth while the others will say it is sacred.”

Dawson, who won the Louis- Hébert riding in three elections under Pierre Trudeau, said, “Rules and timing of the convention and debate schedules will also play in favour of some candidates such as Freeland, who will be front runner, but, depending on the rules, coalition strategies will weigh heavily on the final result.”

He said outsider candidates such as Carney and Clark “might have stronger support than predicted, but I think both are looking at a long-term strategy. In the last 50 years the person who lost came back to win the next one.”

He noted that “[John] Turner lost to Trudeau, [Jean] Chrétien to Turner, [Paul] Martin to Chrétien, and all three came back to win the [leadership] next time.”

Dawson, appointed to the Senate by then-prime minister Paul Martin in 2005, said he is “not at this time convinced by any of the prospective candidates.”

The last time the Liberal Party of Canada held a leadership race was in April 2013, when Trudeau won with 80 per cent of the vote. His most serious rival, former astronaut and MP Marc Garneau, dropped out of the race, clearing the way for Trudeau’s easy win.

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