By Bryan Laprise
Local Journalism Initiative
Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey for May 2025 revealed that while general employment rates held steady, unemployment among returning students aged 15 to 24 was on the rise, reaching 20.1 per cent, 3.2 per cent higher than the same month last year. This is compared to May 2022’s record low of 11.4 per cent. The survey is based on a sample size of 100,000 people each month.
Fabian Lange, chair of the Department of Economics at McGill University, who has done a lot of work relating to unemployment and the labour market, explained that this is primarily due to a strong labour market during the pandemic.
“In the years up to Covid and the period between 2021 and 2022, the labour market was very strong. We had a lot of job vacancies, so, essentially, this was a period of a lot of hiring across the board,” Lange told The Record.
One of the reasons behind such a strong labour market, demonstrated by the record youth unemployment of 11.4 per cent in 2022 is that there had been a long period without a “major recession.”
During times like these, young people benefit the most from this phenomenon as they are usually leaving school unemployed. On the flip side, they also are among the first affected in slowed hiring rates.
This is a demonstrated pattern that youth is more sensitive to changes in the labour market and job availability, according to the professor.
“I don’t think we can speak of a weak labour market quite yet,” he pronounced. “It’s just falling back to historically appropriate rates. Overall, employment rates are still pretty good.”
This is in part because productivity growth is not as strong as before and increased economic instability.
One of the biggest changes mentioned in the report is a 22 per cent reduction in the number of returning students finding work in accommodation and food services. Lange pointed out that this data may be based on a very small age sample.
However, he hypothesized that this industry would be the first affected by a slowed spending rate. “Going to a restaurant, going to hotels, going on vacations, that’s one of the first things to cut back on,” Lange said.
He also noted that young people may strive to work in high-wage professions. “I think that’s a good thing, but they’re going to be drawn away from food and accomodation,” said Lange. Since the pandemic, people have been shifting away from working in this industry due to typical low wages.
According to Lange, it’s likely we will face a recession given the current trade uncertainty. This will affect unemployment rates, at first among youth. Historically, when students graduate from school during recession years, they enter the workforce with lower wages and lower employment rates.
“The first job you find after school, it will determine where you get placed on the job ladder, and that has a consequence on the jobs you find consequently,” Lange added. This would affect young people for a long time. He expects that if a recession were to happen, youth would return to school for more training amid an uncertain labour market.
Patricia Dionne, a Université de Sherbrooke professor who studies professional integration also points to the tariffs as a possible cause for higher unemployment.
“The tariff policy makes it that businesses are more reluctant to hire new people. It particularly impacts young people as they are more vulnerable to an unpredictable labour market,” Dionne said.
She said that research shows young people want to work and it’s an important value for them.
Dionne noted that it’s important for employers to actively recruit. She recommends youth facing difficulties finding a job to visit organizations that can help them, such as Carrefour jeunesse-emploi de Sherbrooke.