Trump’s reshaping of international relations – threats, tariffs, and unpredictability
By William Crooks
Local Journalism Initiative
In a candid Jan. 28 interview, Dr. Gilbert Gagné, a professor of international relations at Bishop’s University, shared his expert analysis of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s unconventional approach to global diplomacy. From protectionist tariffs to his zero-sum worldview, Trump’s strategies have left a lasting impact on international relations, creating ripple effects that challenge established norms and alliances.
A historical lens on tariffs
Dr. Gagné began by discussing the historical role of tariffs, emphasizing their dual purpose as both a revenue source and a protectionist measure. While tariffs were historically one minor way governments generated income, their primary function evolved with industrialization. “When trade and industrialization started, the idea of raising tariffs was not just about revenue but about protecting domestic markets and enabling industrial growth,” Gagné explained. He noted that tariffs provided governments with a means to foster economic development while shielding their economies from foreign competition.
This protectionist approach began to wane post-World War II when the United States championed a liberal economic order, gradually reducing tariffs through initiatives like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The focus shifted from economic shielding to trade liberalization.
While tariffs have largely receded from global trade policy in recent decades, Trump’s presidency brought them back to the forefront. His administration’s aggressive use of tariffs, such as those imposed on Chinese goods, reflects a deliberate shift away from cooperative multilateralism. Trump framed tariffs as both an economic and geopolitical tool, leveraging them to extract concessions and assert U.S. dominance in trade relationships.
America First: A zero-sum approach
Dr. Gagné emphasized Trump’s “America First” doctrine, describing it as “a ruthless business approach that goes contrary to long-held diplomatic practices.” Unlike traditional diplomatic norms where mutual benefit is sought, Trump views international relations as a zero-sum game, aiming to maximize U.S. gains at the expense of others. “For Trump, two sides cannot benefit equally; one must gain more than the other,” Gagné observed.
This doctrine has had profound implications for global alliances and trade. Trump’s renegotiation in his first term of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) showcased his prioritization of U.S. interests. Canada’s supply management system, particularly in dairy and eggs, became a contentious issue during negotiations, with Canada making concessions under U.S. pressure. According to Dr. Gagné, Trump’s approach disrupted decades of cooperation in North America, fostering uncertainty among key allies.
Escalating tensions with China
Trump’s relationship with China is emblematic of his combative style. According to Dr. Gagné, Trump’s administration views China as a challenger to U.S. supremacy in both economic and geopolitical realms. “He raised tariffs and trade barriers during his first term and has [recently] already threatened a 50 per cent across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods,” Gagné noted.
Trump’s rhetoric and policies toward China reveal a broader strategy of containment. “This is a geopolitical rivalry,” Gagné said, adding that the competition spans industries like technology, where U.S. companies vie for dominance against Chinese counterparts. The focus on undermining China’s influence has also extended to traditional U.S. spheres of influence, including Latin America, where China has made significant inroads.
Relations with BRICS and global powers
Beyond China, Trump’s stance toward the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) underscores his adversarial approach. Dr. Gagné pointed out that these nations are often viewed as threats to U.S. influence. While Trump found an ally in Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro, the broader relationship remains fraught with competition. “To the extent that BRICS nations are seen as challengers, they might well be subject to trade restrictions similar to those imposed on China,” Gagné explained.
In the Middle East, Trump’s close alignment with Israel further illustrates his preference for taking sides. Dr. Gagné highlighted Trump’s unwavering support for Israel, contrasting it with the Biden administration’s efforts to address Palestinian concerns. “The Trump administration has almost always sided with Israel on contentious issues like West Bank settlements,” he remarked. This pro-Israel stance is expected to deepen should Trump return to the presidency, potentially exacerbating tensions in the region.
Unpredictability in Ukraine and Europe
When it comes to Ukraine, Trump’s past actions cast a long shadow. His attempts to leverage military aid for political gains led to his first impeachment trial. Looking ahead, Dr. Gagné suggested that Trump’s “America First” doctrine might favour ending U.S. involvement in the Ukraine war, a move that could significantly shift the conflict’s trajectory. “It’s difficult to see how the war could continue without U.S. military support,” Gagné stated, raising questions about how European powers might respond.
Dr. Gagné further noted the potential strain on NATO should Trump pressure allies to increase defense spending. “Trump might use his tactics to force concessions from Canada and other NATO members,” he speculated. This could reshape the alliance, challenging its unity and purpose.
Tensions with Canada: More than trade
Dr. Gagné also reflected on the implications of Trump’s tactics for Canada. While tariffs have been a recurring point of contention, Gagné expressed concern about Trump’s broader strategy. He cited Trump’s remarks suggesting that if Canada were a U.S. state, it wouldn’t face tariffs, interpreting this as a veiled attack on Canadian sovereignty. “If that’s not a frontal attack on Canadian sovereignty, what is it?” Gagné asked.
Drawing parallels to historical U.S. annexations, such as Hawaii, Gagné speculated about the lengths to which Trump might go. “Trump’s unpredictability makes even the unthinkable seem plausible,” he warned. The economic interdependence between Canada and the U.S. further complicates matters, leaving Canada vulnerable to Trump’s idiosyncratic policies.
The Trump playbook: Lies and propaganda
Central to Trump’s strategy is his use of misinformation. Dr. Gagné likened Trump’s tactics to propaganda campaigns, noting that his political discourse often relies on untruths. From claims about migrants to allegations against political opponents, Trump’s rhetoric fuels division and bolsters his agenda. “It’s a political strategy based on lies and propaganda,” Gagné said, drawing parallels to authoritarian regimes.
Trump’s use of digital platforms to amplify misinformation is another area of concern. “With the rollback of regulations on digital platforms, it’s a free-for-all again,” Gagné noted. This unregulated environment allows disinformation to flourish, serving Trump’s political goals.
A looming challenge for democracies
Trump’s approach poses significant challenges for democratic nations, particularly those dependent on the U.S., like Canada. “An idiosyncratic president like Trump is quite threatening for Canada,” Gagné observed. His use of economic measures as political weapons deviates from the norms of democratic diplomacy, straining alliances and undermining trust.
The broader implications of Trump’s tactics extend to the international order. By sidelining multilateral institutions and agreements, Trump undermines the cooperative frameworks that have maintained global stability. This erosion of norms leaves a vacuum that could be exploited by authoritarian regimes, further destabilizing the geopolitical landscape.
The unpredictable future
As the interview concluded, Dr. Gagné emphasized the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s future actions. “Even for a specialist, it’s difficult to be entirely sure of his intentions,” he admitted. Trump’s unpredictability, coupled with his willingness to challenge norms, keeps allies and adversaries alike on edge.
Whether it’s escalating tensions with China, redefining alliances with BRICS nations, or leveraging economic measures against Canada, Trump’s impact on international relations remains profound and contentious. For Dr. Gagné, the key takeaway is clear: in a world shaped by Trump’s tactics, uncertainty is the only constant. The international community must brace itself for the ripple effects of this unprecedented approach to diplomacy.