Provincial demographer talks possible year 2021 to 2071 population shifts in recent report
By William Crooks
Local Journalism Initiative
Quebec’s population is projected to grow steadily over the next five decades, with demographic shifts shaping regions like the Estrie and Sherbrooke areas, as outlined in a recent interview with demographer Frédéric Fleury-Payeur and in the “Perspectives démographiques du Québec et de ses régions, 2021-2071” report released Oct. 7. Fleury-Payeur, who has been studying demography for over 15 years at the Quebec Institute of Statistics, emphasized that these projections offer a glimpse into a possible future based on current trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
“Demography is not about making predictions; it’s about projections. We try to understand what might happen if current trends continue,” said Fleury-Payeur, explaining the distinction between a forecast and a projection. The report paints a complex picture of population growth in the province and its regions. It estimates that Quebec’s population could reach 10.6 million by 2071, with migration being the primary driver of this growth, particularly after 2027.
Migration as the key to growth
“Migration, particularly international migration, is what will sustain Quebec’s population growth in the coming decades,” Fleury-Payeur explained. “We are projecting that despite recent efforts by both federal and provincial governments to reduce the number of temporary migrants, immigration will still be a key factor in population growth.”
The report indicates that Quebec will see a temporary slowdown in growth between 2024 and 2027 due to a reduction in temporary migration from 600,000 to 450,000 migrants by 2027. However, after this period, the province is expected to stabilize and resume growth thanks to a steady influx of permanent immigrants. According to the report, international migration will become even more crucial as Quebec faces negative natural population growth after 2027, with deaths outnumbering births.
Fleury-Payeur pointed out that, in the long run, Quebec will increasingly rely on immigrants to compensate for its declining birth rate. “We revised the fertility rate downward to 1.5 children per woman, from the previous estimate of 1.6. Right now, the rate is 1.38, and it’s trending lower,” he said. “This is part of a global trend, but it’s still a significant factor in our projections.”
Population growth in Estrie and Sherbrooke
When asked about regional demographics, Fleury-Payeur noted that Estrie and the Sherbrooke metropolitan area are among the regions in Quebec expected to experience robust growth. “Estrie is the third-highest growth region in the province, after Quebec City and the Laurentians,” he said, highlighting how internal migration and remote work have spurred population growth in smaller towns and rural areas.
“During the pandemic, many people from Montreal moved to the Eastern Townships, especially in areas like Memphrémagog, where they converted their secondary residences into primary ones. We expect that trend to continue, albeit at a moderated pace,” he added. Sherbrooke’s growth is largely fueled by international migration, with more and more newcomers choosing to settle outside of Montreal.
According to the report, the population of the Sherbrooke metropolitan region is expected to grow by 27 per cent between 2021 and 2051. Estrie will see an overall population increase of approximately 22 to 25 per cent in the same period. The region will continue to attract new residents, thanks in part to affordable housing and its proximity to Montreal, which has become a key factor for those opting for remote work.
Aging population and regional challenges
While growth is projected in Estrie and other regions, Quebec’s aging population will present significant challenges. Fleury-Payeur noted that by 2031, people aged 65 and over will make up nearly a quarter of Quebec’s population, and this proportion will only increase in subsequent years. “In some regions, particularly the more rural areas, the population of seniors could reach as high as 33 per cent by 2051,” he said.
The report warns that Quebec’s demographic shift will put increased pressure on housing, health care, and public services. The number of people aged 85 and over is expected to triple by 2071, rising from 209,000 in 2021 to 583,000. This rise will be accompanied by a growing need for collective housing, with the number of people in such facilities doubling by 2071. “We’re going to need a lot more services for the elderly,” Fleury-Payeur remarked. “This is something all regions, including Estrie, will have to plan for.”
Implications for planning and policy
These demographic projections are crucial for Quebec’s long-term planning, impacting everything from school enrollments to housing strategies. The report highlights that many provincial ministries rely on these projections for their planning processes. “Whether it’s housing, healthcare, or even immigration policies, our data plays an essential role in shaping the future of Quebec,” Fleury-Payeur said.
For Estrie and Sherbrooke, the projected population growth and the aging demographic present both opportunities and challenges. Fleury-Payeur stressed the importance of strategic planning at the regional level to accommodate these shifts, particularly in areas like housing and infrastructure. “Regions like Estrie will continue to grow, but they need to be ready to meet the needs of an increasingly elderly population while also attracting younger families and migrants,” he said.
The full report is available online at the Quebec Institute of Statistics’ website.