By William Crooks

Local Journalism Initiative

The Parti Québécois has won a decisive by-election in Arthabaska, handing Premier François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) another setback as it struggles to maintain support ahead of the 2026 provincial election.

PQ candidate Alex Boissonneault captured 46.4 per cent of the vote in the Aug. 11 contest, defeating Conservative Party of Quebec leader Éric Duhaime, who finished with 35 per cent. The CAQ candidate placed a distant third with just over 7 per cent, a dramatic collapse from the 52 per cent the party secured in the riding during the 2022 general election, according to Global News.

The victory marked the PQ’s third consecutive by-election gain, following wins in Jean-Talon in 2023 and Terrebonne in March 2025. CityNews Montreal described the outcome as “the end of the CAQ era,” while CTV News Montreal reported that analysts now see the PQ as “the number one political force in Quebec”.

Premier Legault acknowledged the scale of the loss. He told reporters he takes “full responsibility” and announced plans to meet with his cabinet to reflect on the party’s direction. “I think it’s time now for me to show humility and listen to citizens,” he said, in remarks reported by Canadian Press.

Expert analysis

Emmanuel Choquette, a professor of political communication at Université de Sherbrooke, said the outcome shows how far public opinion has shifted in a short period of time. “This by-election result really reflects a shift in voter sentiment,” he said in an interview. “Quebecers are clearly signalling dissatisfaction, especially over the handling of public services and transparency in governance”.

Choquette noted that the CAQ’s steep decline in Arthabaska cannot be dismissed as a one-off. “When your support drops from over fifty per cent to less than ten in one riding, it’s more than a bad night—it’s a red warning light,” he said.

He added that attempts by the CAQ to reconnect with voters have largely failed. “All their efforts to reach people more directly and positively didn’t work,” he said. “Their support just keeps falling”.

PQ momentum

For the Parti Québécois, the string of wins has reinforced its momentum under leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. Choquette argued that authenticity has played a key role in the party’s revival. “What benefits the PQ and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is the authenticity of the leader and the party,” he said. “People appreciate that you’re clear about what you want to do—even if they don’t agree with it”.

He pointed to the PQ’s willingness to speak openly about sovereignty and to reject traditions such as oaths to the monarchy as examples of positions that resonate with voters. “You do what you said you would do, and you’re honest about it. People appreciate that,” he said.

The party now holds six seats in the National Assembly, giving it a more visible presence than in recent years. “We’re starting to see the construction of a team,” Choquette said. “That adds confidence for the public toward the PQ”.

Implications for other parties

The by-election was also disappointing for the Quebec Liberals, who remain stuck below 10 per cent support in the riding. “They did better than in the last election, but it’s still less than ten per cent,” Choquette said. He noted that the Liberals continue to struggle to connect with francophone voters outside Montreal. “They have to become a party that can represent regional interests, not only the interests of Montreal,” he said.

For the Conservatives, the result raised questions about Duhaime’s leadership. Despite a strong showing, the party failed to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the CAQ. Choquette suggested Duhaime’s polarizing style was part of the problem. “He may be too divisive,” Choquette said. “A lot of people will like him, but not love him—and some will vote against him because of it”.

Challenges ahead for CAQ

Choquette said the CAQ now faces an uphill battle to rebuild credibility. While Legault was once praised for reversing unpopular decisions, voters no longer interpret his changes of course as signs of political acumen. “People don’t see it as political sense anymore,” Choquette said. “They see it as improvisation”.

He pointed to the government’s shifting position on the third link highway project as an example of what many saw as an electoral tactic rather than a thoughtful policy decision. “A lot of people saw it as a decision without reflection, just a strategic, electoralist move,” he said.

With the next provincial election set for 2026, the PQ is emerging as the main challenger while the CAQ attempts to stem its decline. Choquette said the high turnout in Arthabaska—close to 60 per cent—was also significant. “It shows that voting still matters for a majority of people,” he said. “That’s good news for democracy, for any party”.