Sophie Kuijper Dickson, LJI Journalist

It was a rollercoaster of a week for Pontiac producers working in agriculture and forestry industries, as they watched the longstanding trade agreements that have enabled relatively smooth selling of their products to the U.S. take a serious beating.

In one week, U.S. President Donald Trump implemented the long-threatened 25 per cent tariffs on goods entering the U.S. from Canada, exempted the auto industry from these tariffs and, soon after, walked back almost all tariffs, pausing them until Apr. 2.

Then, on Friday, he promised 250 per cent tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products entering his country, a threat that has since been walked back by his commerce secretary, who clarified these tariffs would be applied on Apr. 2, along with the rest of the paused tariff package.

For many producers in two key Pontiac industries, it’s not yet clear how this trade war will affect their livelihoods.

But in agriculture, where the margins are already slim, and in forestry, which has long been suffering in the Pontiac due to the closure of several local mills, producers have limited abilities to absorb added financial pressures.

On Thursday, near the end of the tumultuous week, Clarendon beef farmer Steve Hamilton put a call in to his buyer at Cargill, where he sells 80 per cent of his cattle. There, it’s processed and much of it sold to the U.S..

“The price that he gave me was roughly 10 per cent lower than it would have been two weeks ago,” he said, figuring the tariffs are certainly affecting it. “I knew there were going to be effects, but we still don’t know long term [what the impacts will be.]”

But the price Hamilton can get for his product is only one half of what he’s watching. Equally concerning are his input costs.

“It doesn’t matter what it is, from parts to anything that we need to buy, it’s costing more than a few years ago,” Hamilton said, suggesting there is little wiggle room for any additional costs to running the farm, thanks to tariffs.

But Hamilton has hope, both that the profound codependence of American and Canadian sides of the beef industry will encourage reconciliation before too much damage is done, and that the increasing precarity of the international market will encourage producers, and lawmakers, to support a more robust and sustainable local beef market.

Hamilton processes and sells the remaining 20 per cent of his cattle locally. He used to do so through the Shawville abattoir which he, as one of the producers on the board created to govern the co-op, is now working to reopen.

He said part of what he would like to see to make this business successful is the easing of interprovincial trade barriers that prevent him from selling beef processed in a Quebec abattoir to Ontario markets.

The restrictions, he explained, will seriously limit the abattoir’s ability to serve customers right across the river.

“The small [abattoirs], like we’re trying to get going here, obviously have the benefits of [supporting] food security locally,” Hamilton said, pointing to the COVID-19 pandemic as an example of the inclination to support local during times of economic crisis.

“Obviously, in any crisis there’s opportunities and things you have to look for,” he said, suggesting the current trade war offers a ripe opportunity for policymakers and farmers to double down on putting the infrastructure in place that can better support a local food economy.

“But it doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy. It is quite likely going to be tougher years again.”

Precarity for private wood producers

Cash Allard is the general manager for the Pontiac Forest Products Producers Board, which helps about 90 private producers to get their product to market and advocates for support needed to keep the local forestry industry alive.

He said while it’s not yet clear how tariffs will impact Pontiac’s private forestry industry, the nature of its current precarity means it’s vulnerable to any shift in the industry.

Allard said producers rely on the temporarily closed Resolute Mill in Maniwaki, which he said is now owned by Domtar, for softwood sales; on Louisiana-Pacific (LP) where producers sell panel wood; and on Domtar’s mill in Windsor, Que. where producers sell hardwood pulp.

“Tariffs could affect everything. Softwood’s going to get hit, there could be more levies on the hardwood, the fuel might go up, and if it does, it just makes it harder and harder for us,” Allard said.

Of particular concern for him is the future of the subsidy program from Quebec’s Ministry of Natural Resources and Forests, which since Sept. 2023 has been critical to enabling Pontiac producers to transport hardwood to the Domtar mill in Windsor, and is set to expire at the end of this month.

Allard is worried an economic recession will be the nail in the coffin of a program central to Pontiac’s industry.

“If the subsidy program doesn’t get announced again . . . if as an effect of Canadians not spending money, the government is doing slashing so they don’t get too much overhead, they could slash this program which would mean we lose our hardwood pulp market,” Allard said.

Of further concern is the potential of limitations on softwood markets, to accommodate a slow in sales to the U.S..

“For these mills to set up limitations could literally destroy the Pontiac’s industry,” Allard said Thursday, before President Trump announced a plan to slap the lumber industry with 250 per cent tariffs on Friday.

“We don’t even know the consequences. There’s a lot of people just talking right now, and we don’t know what’s been hit yet.”