Courtesy Quebec Liberal Party
The three front-runners for Quebec Liberal leadership show a range of political styles.
Quebec’s most successful party gets ready for another run at the top
By David Winch
Local Journalism Initiative
What’s up with the Quebec Liberals?
The rise of Mark Carney and a tariff-driven federal election overshadowed the provincial Liberals’ leadership campaign. It officially kicked off in January and the five candidates for PLQ leader gamely pursued support, but with little or no media presence.
Now, they’re back – maybe all the way back.
Recent leadership debates (available on YouTube) showcased the five candidates for Liberal leader. They often defied preconceptions with strong statements of principle, notably as regards public finances and minority rights.
Cyclical rebounds
The Quebec Liberals were given up for dead after their 2018 and 2022 defeats, certainly by many Montreal pundits and instant-reaction “analysts”.
Unsurprisingly, the PQ’s poll numbers have soared in the political vacuum left by the CAQ’s unpopularity. My wager: that is a temporary bubble of homeless voters.
Particularly exasperating was the readiness of big-foot national correspondents, such as Ottawa commentator Andrew Coyne and Montreal columnist Konrad Yakabuski, to crown the Parti Québécois as 2026 winners. Each published columns under the headline “constitutional crisis”. These alarmist takes may look ridiculously premature after the next Quebec election.
The Liberals have repeatedly “risen from the dead”, then governed for years afterwards. I recall the red-splattered electoral maps in La Presse after Quebec elections in the early 1970s — Liberals everywhere. Then in 1976 they suffered a devastating defeat to the PQ.
The premier, Robert Bourassa, was even beaten in his own riding in central Montreal. The party drifted through a losing period, initially under dour leader Claude Ryan, before emerging victorious again in 1985, led by … Robert Bourassa.
In the mid-1990s a wave of post-Meech nationalism again forced the Bourassa Liberals out, and again the Liberal party looked hapless and hopeless for years.
Once reluctant Sherbrooke MP Jean Charest was drafted to lead the provincial Liberals, however, the PLQ won in 2003 and resumed its dominance — proceeding to win not one, not two, but three consecutive terms in office, a post-1960 record for them.
So it is unwise to underestimate a party with such broad-based history and appeal. Last year I wrote here (“Can the Quebec Liberals bounce back?”, September 2024) that, despite its perilously low poll numbers since its second big defeat in 2022, the PLQ had the most potential for growth among the four parties in the National Assembly.
Parties rotate in power
Recent history shows how quickly Quebec’s chameleon-like voters can “change colour” when the mood strikes them.
Back in 2012, the newly formed Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) proposed to bring a fresh tone to provincial politics. Its founder François Legault explicitly renounced future referendums. He promised to focus on the practical concerns of Quebec voters – health care, above all, but also tax burdens and government efficiency. It even feigned an opening to anglophone and ethnic voters.
It’s hard to recall now, but the CAQ was portrayed as an innovative vehicle for political problem-solvers. On that front, there has been disappointment all round.
The governing CAQ is facing severe headwinds, given the failure of its platform: healthcare is no better than when it took office, and nobody believes new body Santé Quebec will improve anything. The provincial deficit has ballooned to $13 billion, after being reduced to zero in 2018 by Liberal finance minister Carlos Leitao. Bottomless investments in electric battery maker Northvolt drained public finances.
And the general tone of society has become more tense, with cultural conflicts exacerbated by a Premier stuck on some 1950s-vintage cultural fears.
By contrast, the Quebec Liberals match some criteria of a “parti attrape-tout” or a catch-all party. This was defined by political scientist Otto Kirchheimer as a party that “appeals across the board, beyond social classes and especially the classic divisions between right and left”. Such a party can appeal to many factions in society, as well as their opposites.
At its best, the PLQ is a unifying party of broad reform, as with the Jean Lesage government of the early 1960s. It established a fully public education system, including Cégeps and a new university network, nationalized Hydro and promoted the francophone business class.
The Charest Liberal governments (2003-2012) tried to rein in spending and proposed “re-engineering” the state, an effort that ran into severe opposition when higher student fees were proposed to cover university deficits. But that government mostly presided over a decade of social peace.
Townships links
The five Liberal leadership candidates cover a broad range of styles. At the English-language debate held May 3 in Laval, several candidates stood out.
Pablo Rodriguez, a veteran Justin Trudeau-era federal minister with all the baggage that entails, comes across as firm and knowledgeable. This is matched by a reputation for being no-nonsense and even arrogant in private. His experience in the Township is extensive, as he was a Université de Sherbrooke grad and maintains links to the community. (He played soccer for the UdeS squad and broke his leg twice, which suggests his hard-charging style.) By all accounts Rodriguez holds the lead.
Charles Milliard, by contrast, is smooth and confident sounding. He was head of a Chamber of Commerce group and is predictably critical of the CAQ’s spending misadventures. A new resident of North Hatley, Milliard could conceivably run in the Townships to upend the CAQ in a nearby riding.
Finally, Karl Blackburn, third of the most serious candidates, is solid in his small-l liberal convictions and business smarts. A former MNA for Roberval, he was also head of the executive group Conseil du Patronat. But his campaign was handicapped by his early absence, prompted by a serious illness. He is trying to regain ground, but for several months Milliard and Rodriguez were largely unopposed in recruiting delegates.
Any of these candidates could lead Liberals back, after they plumbed the electoral depths. Here’s hoping delegates choose the strongest candidate on June 14.