Brenda O’Farrell
The Advocate
With the majority of Canada’s agri-food exports going to the United States each year, including much of Quebec’s farm and food products, the threat of a tariff war looms large over the agricultural sector. Producers on this side of the border remain in a tense wait-and-see mode as they speculate over what U.S. President Donald Trump will do next.
As the 30-day reprieve from the 25-per-cent tariffs imposed on all Canadian goods except for energy, counts down to March 4, farmers in every sector are bracing for some form of impact.
Overall, 60 per cent of Canada’s agricultural exports go to the U.S., while 68 per cent of Quebec’s bio-food exports are shipped south of the border.
Pork sector
In the pork sector, a total of $582 million in product from Quebec was exported to the U.S. in 2023, according to figures from the Éleveurs de porcs du Québec.
“We would lose market share,” said René Roy, president of the Canadian Pork Council and a pork producer from Beauce. “Yes, in the medium term we could find other markets, but this would result in economic losses. Because if our industry sells so much to the United States, it is because the distance and the type of products we send to them remain more profitable than sales in other markets.”
Exports of pork to Mexico have already picked up slightly since the threat of tariffs, Roy says.
Roy also points to another optimistic development – traders in the U.S. are pressuring the Trump administration to exempt the sector simply because of high consumers demand for the product.
Pork producers out west are not in the same position as those in Quebec, however, Roy points out.
Pork producers in Western Canada rely on the export of piglets. American operations that import these animals for raising and slaughterhouses that process them could see rising costs making it more difficult to fill their needs.
Maple syrup
In the maple sector, tariffs on a product that is viewed as a bit of a luxury could be very harmful.
Adding to the concern is that 62 per cent of Quebec’s maple syrup is exported to the U.S., the biggest export market for Quebec producers. The second largest importer of syrup from the province is Germany, which accounts for 8 per cent of sales from Quebec.
Last year, 45 million kilograms of syrup were shipped to the U.S. This represents $368 million in exports.
Dairy
Canada’s supply-managed sectors like dairy are not immediately at risk if tariffs are imposed. And consumers will not see any price changes in the grocery stores. But these sectors have always been in the crosshairs of the Trump administration, which has repeatedly criticized the system and demanded greater access to the Canadian market for American products.
Since his inauguration, Trump has frequently commented publicly that he wants American dairy farmers to have greater access to the Canadian market. It is a likely target in any future trade pact negotiations, although federal Canadian officials have promised no more concessions in the supply-managed sectors.
Vegetable sector
One winner in a trade war could be Quebec’s vegetable and berry producers.
Retaliatory tariffs on U.S. vegetables will increase the cost of these products steering consumers to opt for more locally grown selections. This includes strawberries that could bolster greenhouse operators.
But anecdotal evidence is already pointing to an uptick in sales as consumers insulted by the U.S. president’s expansionist view and calls to claim Canada as the 51st state have pushed shoppers to boycott U.S. grocery products.
Beef
Canadian beef producers are perhaps the ones dealing with the highest level of uncertainty.
Fifty per cent of meat raised in Canada is exported. And the largest client is the U.S., which accounts for 70 per cent of those exports. Anyway you look at it, tariffs will have a harsh downside.
And with U.S. beef herds at historic lows, there is no pressure from the industry in the states to seek any exemptions for the sector like in the pork industry.