By William Crooks
Local Journalism Initative
Mark Carney’s decisive win in the Liberal leadership race has reshaped the political landscape, according to Bishop’s University Political Studies Professor Jacob Robbins-Kanter. Carney, a former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, won with 85 per cent of the vote, making him the first Canadian prime minister without previous elected experience.
“It’s the first time we have a prime minister who has never held any other elected office,” Robbins-Kanter noted. “But he has a lot of other experience that you could say is relevant.”
Carney’s victory has already tightened the race between the Liberals and the Conservatives, with recent polling showing his party regaining ground by drawing support from the Bloc Québécois and the NDP rather than significantly weakening Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative base. “The Conservative support is pretty flat, maybe a few points down,” Robbins-Kanter observed. “But the Bloc and the NDP have really suffered.”
One of Carney’s early moves has been to distance himself from unpopular policies of the Trudeau government, including a major shift on the carbon tax. “He’s going to drop the consumer carbon pricing scheme,” Robbins-Kanter explained, though corporate emissions pricing will remain. The policy shift puts Poilievre in a difficult position after years of attacking the tax as a central campaign issue. “The Conservatives are now trying to claim Carney has a hidden carbon tax,” Robbins-Kanter said. “I don’t know if voters will buy that.”
The election strategy for both major parties is also being shaped by the looming presence of Donald Trump in the U.S. “The Trump issue really dominated the leadership race,” Robbins-Kanter said, with Carney presenting himself as the strongest leader to stand up to the U.S. president’s policies. That contrasts with Poilievre, who has been publicly praised by figures in Trump’s orbit, including Elon Musk and J.D. Vance. “If the ballot box question is about handling Trump, I would be pretty nervous if I were the Conservatives,” he added.
Robbins-Kanter also pointed out that endorsements from Trump-aligned figures could be damaging for Poilievre. “Elon Musk basically endorsed Poilievre. That doesn’t help when a large part of the electorate is wary of Trump and his influence on Canada.” The Conservatives, he said, are likely hoping the Trump issue fades from public discussion by election time.
For the NDP, the situation is bleak. “They’re hoping for another minority government where they can hold the balance of power,” Robbins-Kanter said. The party is losing ground to both the Liberals and Conservatives, and their best-case scenario is now a close election where they remain kingmakers. “It looks like they’re set to lose seats both to the Liberals and Conservatives,” he said, adding that defending key incumbencies will be the NDP’s main goal.
An election is expected imminently, as Carney lacks a seat in the House of Commons and is eager to capitalize on his momentum. “The Liberals have signalled they want an election soon,” Robbins-Kanter explained, noting that triggering a campaign would also limit the Conservatives’ ability to outspend them on attack ads. “Right now, the Conservatives can just carpet-bomb the airwaves with negative ads, but during an official campaign, spending limits kick in.”
Carney is expected to be sworn in as prime minister within the week and will likely dissolve Parliament soon after. “It looks like as early as next week he’ll ask the Governor General to issue the writs for an election before the opposition parties even have a chance to bring down the government in a confidence vote,” Robbins-Kanter said. The move would allow the Liberals to control the timing and framing of the election rather than risk being forced into one.
Carney’s landslide win also raises questions about the future of his leadership rival, Chrystia Freeland, who finished a distant second. “If she had gotten 30 per cent, she would have had a clear role to play,” Robbins-Kanter said. “But the result was so disappointing, and she wasn’t that popular to begin with.”
Freeland, a former finance minister and deputy prime minister, was long seen as Trudeau’s heir apparent, but her inability to distance herself from the outgoing government hurt her chances. “The fact that she only got about 8 per cent in the leadership race shows that Liberal members were ready to move on,” Robbins-Kanter said.
While Carney may offer Freeland a cabinet position, Robbins-Kanter suggested that if Carney wants to signal a clean break from the Trudeau era, he may opt to sideline her. “He doesn’t really owe anyone anything,” he said. “He won such a crushing victory that he has no political debts to pay.” However, Robbins-Kanter also noted that Freeland and Carney have a personal history that could complicate matters.
Robbins-Kanter emphasized that Carney’s overwhelming victory was even greater than most political analysts had expected. “I know I’ve heard a few people say they expected it, but I really don’t think anyone thought Freeland, a former deputy prime minister and finance minister, would have such a disappointing result,” he said. “Carney just totally wiped the floor with everyone else.”
Ultimately, Robbins-Kanter sees the leadership result as proof that Liberal members are prioritizing electability above all else. “They really want to win,” he said. “And Carney probably has the best shot at bringing them back into a competitive race.”
As Carney prepares for an election, the key issues shaping the campaign are already becoming clear: economic management, the carbon tax reversal, and his positioning as a counterweight to Trump’s influence. Whether his leadership can translate into a Liberal electoral victory remains to be seen, but Robbins-Kanter suggests that Carney’s win has already given the party a fighting chance.