By Bryan Laprise
Local Journalism Initiative
With autumn officially started, it’s time to get out that hiking gear and get ready for some crisp fall days ahead. Putting those humid and rainy days in the past, forecasts call for weather favourable to outdoor activities. Whether you’re an avid sports enthusiast or a casual afternoon walker, the coming weeks should bring their slate of good times.
According to Kevin Mackay, a meteorologist at the Weather Network, the general driver for Canada’s fall weather is a “large-scale global pattern.” This correlates to above-average temperatures. “Certainly, in the eastern half of the country, that’s a stronger signature.” In almost all of Canada, these temperatures will be this way. Only British Columbia is set to have cooler-than-normal temperatures.
“For the Eastern Townships, it should settle to a drier fall, as a whole,” said Mackay. This comes from a lower number of fall storms than what is usually expected.
One of the reasons for this is the “Bermuda high,” also referred to as the “Azores high.” This is a high-pressure system located over the Atlantic Ocean which pushes weather systems in a clockwise manner. While it can push heat and humidity northbound, during hurricane season, these highs can contribute to directing precipitation towards south-eastern Quebec and the Eastern Townships. The extent to which the Bermuda high moves towards the Atlantic coast is a major contributor to predicting the degree to which New England and Canada will get the tail-end of tropical storms.
“Right now, it’s looking like that storm track will be north of the St. Lawrence, for the most part. So, for the Eastern Townships, it should settle to a drier fall as a whole,” explained the meteorologist.
According to data published by Environment and Natural Resources Canada, Sherbrooke typically gets 96.6mm of rainfall in the month of October and 79.3mm in November. In terms of temperatures, October usually has maximum highs of 12.6 degrees and minimum temperatures of 1.3 degrees (with an average daily temperature of 6.9). For November, the daily maximum is 5.8, the minimum is -3.7 with a daily average temperature of 1.1 degrees.
While the above-normal temperatures are expected until the end of October, Mackay suggests making the most of the early weeks of the month for which there is a higher likelihood of nicer weather.
He explained that the temperature predictions take into account the mean temperature for the entire day and not simply daytime highs and overnight lows. So, while the mean temperature may only indicate one degree above normal, this might actually represent daytime temperatures of five to seven degrees higher than the fall average.
However, the meteorologist classified fall weather as a “one step forward, two steps back situation,” saying, “You might still have a day or two below normal, but then we’ll get back into those above-normal days. We should have more stresses of above normal temperatures than stresses of below normal for the next couple of [weeks].”
As an avid outdoors person, he urged people to spend time outside enjoying the weather, reassuring people that they can be more willing to book trips and outings in advance as there’s a slimmer chance of running into a forecast that would alter plans.
On the flip side, people looking forward to early snow will have to contain their excitement as the first snowfalls are only expected for later in the month of November. With the second half of hurricane season in full swing, active periods of rain are more likely. However, because of the atmospheric conditions surrounding the Bermuda high, the storm track is set to be pushed towards inland United States rather than towards Maine and Quebec.
The Weather Network’s forecast outlines that mild temperatures are expected to continue into November, but during those weeks, a more active period of storms may occur. It also argues for an “abrupt transition into early winter” towards the end of November. This would make ski stations able to open sooner rather than later.
It will be interesting to keep these predictions in mind as the season unfolds. For the start of October, forecasts seem to be following a trend of high temperatures with little to no precipitation. People who love the outdoors should be content with this swift change in weather following this summer’s high levels of humidity and spouts of heavy rainfall.