Brenda O’Farrell
The Advocate

History shows that shifts in the world economy – traditionally triggered by advancements in technology, automation, wars, population growth – cause massive disruptions, resulting in losses for some sectors, but winners in others.

But experts say U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war, which is reordering the global economy, could produce only losers. And in that context, the agricultural sector needs to brace itself.

That is not the only challenge facing Canada’s agricultural sector, however. At the same time, some subsectors are also being hit with punishing tariffs from China, putting some grain and pork producers – at increased jeopardy.

In March, China slapped 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian pork and seafood, and a 100-per-cent surcharge on canola. These measures were in response to Canada’s move to impose 100-per-cent levies on Chinese-made electric vehicles and a 25-per-cent tariff on aluminum and steel products that had been announced in late 2024.

And with Quebec being Canada’s largest pork-producing province, with 1,482 producers, according to Les Éleveurs de porcs du Québec, the impact in this sector cannot be ignored.

“The recent imposition of a 25-per-cent retaliatory tariff on Canadian pork by China has dealt a severe blow to one of the country’s most vital export sectors,” said the Canadian Meat Council in a statement issued April 14. 

In 2024, Canada exported $468.6 million worth of pork products to China, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

“China’s tariffs will have a significant impact on both employment and production, potentially leading to widespread layoffs or even closures of operations,” said Chris White, CEO of the Canadian Meat Council. “This situation is devastating – not only for meat processors, but also for the thousands of people employed and the communities that depend on them.”

The Canadian Meat Council called on the federal government to take “meaningful action in support of the country’s meat industry.” And described the support measures such as those announced through the AgriStability fund in March have been wholly inadequate, as they do not provide relief for processors.

The Canadian Meat Council “is calling for direct, targeted financial support for meat processors to offset the immediate and significant impact of these tariffs and to help maintain slaughter capacity. This support is critical not only for the viability of processing facilities – some of which are projecting losses of over $100 million this year – but also for Canadian pork producers, who depend on these plants to continue selling their animals and sustaining farm operations.”

Adding to the tariff woes for the Canadian pork industry is the worry that Mexico will impose a levy on U.S. pork.

Mexico is the largest importer of U.S. pork. This could see U.S. pork exports drop, pushing U.S. pork prices down. This would drag Canadian pork prices down with them, as Canadian hog prices are tied directly to U.S. pricing models as determined by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

And all of this is happening as the Quebec pork industry is attempting to recover from a major overhaul triggered by financial setbacks suffered by Olymel, the Quebec-based company that is the largest pork processor in province, that sent rippling affects across the sector.

In 2018, Canadian pork exports totalled about $4 billion, with $514 million attributed to the Chinese market, with projections of these figures would soon double.

But in June 2019, China banned pork imports in retaliation for the arrest and detention of an executive with Chinese tech firm Huawei Technologies.

Although the ban was lifted almost six months later, damage was done. And Olymel was scrambling after expanding its production facilities. The pivot saw the company cut the number of hogs it would process, and closed its facility in Vallée Jonction in the Beauce region of Quebec in 2023.

Now, industry observers say the sector needs to focus on influencing consumers to opt for pork more often at the grocery store. Growing the Canadian market for pork, while exploring other export avenues is becoming the tariff-war opportunity.