JOSHUA ALLAN
The 1510 West
With less than two weeks to go in the federal election campaign, polls indicate that the West Island’s three Liberal MPs are enjoying comfortable leads ahead of rival parties. It’s familiar territory for the Liberal Party, as voters in the ridings of Lac-Saint-Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollard and Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle have each elected Liberal MPs for the past decade and more.
In Lac-Saint-Louis
According to political projection website 338Canada, which aggregates polling data from several national polling firms, Liberal Party candidate and incumbent MP Francis Scarpaleggia has a strong lead in Lac-Saint-Louis, polling at around 63 per cent support. This is followed by the Conservative Party candidate Matthew Rusniak at 22 per cent, the New Democratic Party candidate Gregory Evdokias at 6 per cent, Bloc Québécois candidate Tommy Fournier at 4 per cent, and the Green Party’s Raymond Frizzell at 3 per cent. The People’s Party of Canada is also running candidate Mathieu Dufort in the riding.
Lac-Saint-Louis is considered a Liberal stronghold, having elected Liberal MPs continuously since 1993, with the election of Clifford Lincoln, who served three terms before retiring from politics in 2004. Lincoln was replaced by Scarpaleggia, who has won seven consecutive elections in the past 20 years.
Pierrefonds-Dollard
338Canada also projects a strong performance for the Liberal Party in Pierrefonds-Dollard. Incumbent MP Sameer Zuberi is polling at around 62 per cent support. He is followed by Conservative Party candidate Tanya Toledano at 24 per cent, NDP’s Kakou Richard Kouassi at 6 per cent, and the Bloc’s Katrina Archambault at 4 per cent. Other confirmed candidates include Gordon Nash for the People’s Party of Canada, as well as independent candidates Shahid Khan and Eyad Mobayed.
Pierrefonds-Dollard has been a strongly Liberal riding for more than 30 years (aside from a brief stint with the NDP from 2011-2015). Zuberi had won back-to-back elections in 2019 and 2021, winning 56 per cent of the vote both times.
Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle
If the election were held today, incumbent Liberal MP Anju Dhillon would be projected to receive around 57 per cent of the vote in Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle, after having won the riding in the three prior elections. Trailing her is Conservative candidate Alioune Sarr with 18 per cent, Bloc candidate Pauline Postel with 10 per cent, NDP candidate Angélique Soleil Lavoie with 7 per cent and Green candidate Amir Badr Eldeen with 3 per cent. Other candidates include Michael Patterson running under the People’s Party of Canada banner; Katy LeRougetel – known for her advocacy as a member of the Communist League – running as an independent; and André Lavigne running for the satirical Rhinoceros Party.
Like Pierrefonds-Dollard, the riding of Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle has been a Liberal fortress for decades (minus an NDP victory in the 2011 election).
Renewed party direction
“We don’t take anything for granted,” said Pierrefonds-Dollard MP Sameer Zuberi in an interview, acknowledging the party’s strong polling in the region. He pointed out that he and his team are “running a positive campaign, meeting voters at their doors and speaking with them continuously.”
Most national polls have the Liberal Party polling at between 43 and 46 per cent across the country – a stark contrast to three months earlier, where the party had been polling in the low 20s.
“People are excited about what Mark Carney has to offer Canada,” Zuberi said of the party’s new leader, noting a clear change in attitude among voters compared with months earlier.
Zuberi explained how, prior to Carney filling the role, his constituents had been voicing a desire for concrete renewal from the party.
“I think Mark Carney is that concrete renewal,” said Zuberi.
Overall, Zuberi said his constituents’ main concerns for this election include affordability, housing and managing the ongoing trade war with the United States.