Peter Black, Local Journalism Initiative reporter
A timeline leading to Year One of the Republic of Quebec
(Author’s note: The following is speculative fiction. Some of it might not happen.)
September 2026: As the October election approaches, the latest polls show support for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) continues to slide, despite applying Bill 101 to English CEGEPs, quadrupling tuition fees for out-of-province students, banning all non-francophone immigration and creating a new university solely for francophone foreign students on the campus of the former Bishop’s University, which was forced to close due to lack of enrolment.
Oct. 5, 2026: The CAQ government is reduced to a minority in the election held on this date. It not only fails to regain Jean-Talon, it loses all its seats in the Quebec City region, a dozen on the north and south shores of Montreal and its two on the Island itself, plus more than 20 in the regions.
The Parti Québécois surges in Montreal’s east end and regions throughout the province, moving from four seats to 40. Québec Solidaire (QS) also gains significant ground in Montreal and a smattering of other ridings around Quebec.
The Quebec Liberals, under new leader Marwah Rizqy, hold a dozen seats in their Montreal fortress.
Oct. 12, 2026: After a series of backroom talks, the PQ and QS agree to form a parliamentary alliance, united by the PQ’s commitment to holding a referendum on the sovereignty of Quebec. Combined, the two officially sovereigntist parties can defeat the CAQ once it convenes the National Assembly and attempts to govern. QS co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, a former student activist, proposes free university tuition for all Quebec students in an independent Quebec as the condition of his party’s support – and gets it.
Oct. 20, 2026: Premier François Legault and his newly appointed cabinet face the National Assembly for the first time since the election. PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon immediately calls for a vote of confidence. Legault seeks an emergency meeting with the lieutenant governor, who refuses to commit to granting the premier’s request to call another election should he lose the vote.
Oct. 22, 2026: The CAQ government is defeated on a motion of non-confidence by the combined votes of PQ and QS MNAs. The lieutenant governor calls on St-Pierre Plamondon to form a government. In accepting the mandate, St-Pierre Plamondon declares there will be a referendum on sovereignty within the first year of his mandate, no matter what polls say about the popularity of separation from Canada. The premier-designate appoints Nadeau-Dubois deputy premier. Jean-Talon MNA and Justice Minister Pascal Paradis is responsible for negotiations with Canada. Former PQ minister and current CAQ minister Bernard Drainville leads a small group of CAQ MNAs defecting to the PQ/QS coalition government.
Oct. 23, 2026: Legault resigns as CAQ leader and is replaced by former economic super-minister Pierre Fitzgibbon as interim leader pending the referendum on sovereignty. Fitzgibbon is tasked with forming a committee to plot strategy for the Non campaign. He calls on St-Pierre Plamondon to resign if his government loses the proposed referendum.
Oct. 25, 2026: Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre creates a special cabinet committee to deal with the Quebec crisis, which he blames on Justin Trudeau, although the Liberals did win the most seats in the province in the June 2025 federal election. He assigns veteran Quebec City-area MP Gérard Deltell, a former CAQ MNA, to be the federal government’s liaison with the PQ/QS government. Despite winning 185 seats nationwide in the election, the Conservatives elected only 12 MPs in Quebec and none in the Montreal region, which was split between the Bloc and Liberals.
Nov. 15, 2026: On the 50th anniversary of the first election of the Parti Québécois, St-Pierre Plamondon announces a referendum on independence will take place in one year’s time. He promises that the question put to Quebecers will be clear and not based on sovereignty-association as it was in 1980, nor on an ambiguous partnership with the rest of Canada, a feature of the 1995 question. The PQ premier says if the Oui side should win the referendum, Quebec will declare independence from Canada, regardless of the terms of the Clarity Act, on la Fête nationale, June 24, 2027.
Nov. 16, 2026: Former prime minister Justin Trudeau, reached at home in Montreal by reporters, quotes his father Pierre: “I won’t go hang myself in the attic if Quebec separates. I’ll continue living here.”
To be continued …